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president obama is in israel, intent on proving that the unbreakable alliance has not been broken and is instead still an alliance. it's wednesday, march 20th. this is "now." joining me today, author and radio host of studio 360, curt anderson. professor at the lbj school of public policy, and msnbc contributor, victor use defrancesca soto, and michael steele, and washington bureau chief of huffington post ryan grim. >> today president obama began his first state visit to israel. after their meeting, the two leaders will hold a joint news

conference this afternoon. the day began with president obama's early morning arrival where he was met by netanyahu and simon perez. >> thank you for what you are, thank you for what you do. thank you for the hopes you carry with you. >> i come here today with a simple message for you and the-mile-an-hour people. thank you. thank you for strengthening the unbreakable alliance between our two nations during your presidency. >> despite the positive juju, president obama still has considerable work ahead of had imto shore up israeli support. ben pith writes, the trip's symbolism is clearly focused on rye 'sure the israeli public that the president and the united states, calling into question, rather than push for specific policies, it would seem

this visit is about winning israeli hearts and minds. ahead of the president's trip. politico ran the headline -- president obama in israel, symbolism over substance. and so essentially it seems this is exactly the kind of visit the president claimed last fall he would not make. >> why not visit israel as president? >> well, the truth of the matter is that there are a number of countries i didn't visit. i visited israel a couple months before i was president. given how important i think the situation in the middle east is and our partnership with israel, which is stronger than it's ever been, when i go to israel, i want to make sure we're moving something forward. >> while there may be little to no progress on peace talks between israeli and palestinians, the two leaders will have much to discussing, syria, and ahn iran intent on

developing nuclear weapons. joins us from washington is the president of j street, jeremy, great to have you on the program. >> it's great to be here. >> let's talk about things that may get done or see some progress. president obama said to israeli tv last week, we think it could take over a year or so for iran to actually develop a nuclear weapon, but obviously we don't want to cut it too close. that would seem to be something worth discussing, the president is setting out a time frame in which iran may have nuclear capabilities. one would think that would go over with the israelis who have long been ringing the alarmt bells. what is your assessment? >> both countries' intelligence is actually pretty much in line. there's not a lot of disagreement around where the iranian program is at. i think the question that has come up is what's the best strategy, what's the best timeline for implementing that strategy for preventing iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

i think it's a good opportunity for the president and the prime minister to make sure they touch base, are on the same page, sanctions and diplomacy are the president's chosen route and there are others who look to see more concrete steps sooner rather than later, and the president is saying we still have more than a year, let the sanctions work, let's keep an avenue open for diplomacy. >> let's talk about syria. if you're talking about regional instability, the news there may be chemical weapons involved that seemed to change the calculation to some degree, there's pressure coming from some members of the right in congress as far as the white house needing to take more action or greater action or some action. john mccain and lindsey graham wrote a letter saling if today's reports are accurate, we would urge immediate action to encourage the consequences he has promised. to what degree do you think that would be a point of discussion? >> well, absolutely. i think again this is another place where the interests of both countries really line up.

there is no one who has an interest in watching the syrian situation continue to deteriorate to the point where it's a sectarian 1i68 war and some of these weapons get out of control and into actual use. this is clearly a red line for the international community, but the question is what is the strategies available, what are the actual options for, you know, for action, the president and much of his team thus far has drawn a line at providing civilian and medical and other humanitarian assistance. can you actually intervene militarily in an effective marine without the assistance going into the wrong hands? who are the good guys? who ared bad guys? it's a difficult situation, but the interests of both parties are the same. it's the tools that aren't so clear. >> curt, this is coming on the anniversary of the selling of the lies regarding the iraq war to the american public. it is notable insofar as i think that's been an animating factor

in the president's reticence in terms of getting involved in a number of conflicts or changing situations in the middle east. the question is, what can you do on syria? you look at the tally at 70,000 people are estimated to have been killed. mccabe and graham are obviously more hawkish when it comes to interventi intervention. what kind of support would the president have for more boots on the ground or getting involve in another conflagration of the middle east. >> i think we have to say that it's not simply the president's reticence. i would say it is the american public's reticence, having learned its various lessons over the last 12 years from afghanistan and iraq. i agree that the chemical weapons use, and certainly proven to be true by the assad regime changes the calculation

significantly in terms of sort of laying the setting the table for more aggressive and explicit and direct u.s. military involvement. >> being a washington pooh-bah as you are, two pooh-bahs, you know, is there political capital for the president to take a stronger line on syria? i mean, would he have bipartisan support on that? >> no, because they have exhausted so much of their energy on iraq and afternoon. now, whether or not you can, you know, persuade bipartisan elites in washington to eventually go along with the president if he really wanted to is a different question. these folks do tend to fold pretty quickly on matters of narc security. >> and -- roughly the same number of people have died in the conflict in mexico, of 0,000 or so, so if people dying

violently is for the u.s. army a reason to go into the country to do thing, think why aren't we in mexico, occupying that country? >> i think, as curt says, it's an inflection point, if you will, when it's the government using weapons on its own people, right? i'm not trying to say one is better than the other, but i think the is line is that much starker. jeremy, i want to go back to you in terms of u.s./israeli relations, and ehud barack has an op-ed in the "wall street journal" today, and he says basically that the middle east would be in turmoil whether there was peace. he writing the root cause of the problems is not the off-cited failure to solve the conflict, the muslim brotherhood would still have come to power in egypt. syria would still by mired in a

bloody civil war, and, so does that basically give these two leaders a pass to punt on peace negotiations? >> you know, i don't think so. i don't think ehud barack would give you a pass to punt. what he's saying is don't blame all of the troubles in the region on the lack of peace between the palestinians and -- but he -- achieve a two-state resolution is of fundamental interest of both the united states and its national security, but also of the state of israel. if israel doesn't get a two-state solution in the near future, it's going to lose its its jewish or its democratic nature, and ehud is one of those sounding the alarm. i don't think by any stretch that's saying don't make serious moves toward peace in the coming months. it's just saying don't expect

the rest of these troubles to be solved by peace between the palestinians and israelis. the president is going to the people who are making a big address to thousands of israeli students. peter rhineheart writes in "the daily beast" he needs to tell them by subsidizing settlement growth, their leaders are imperiling israel's future as a democratic jewish state. that seems to be a tricky proposition. >> well, there's a choice here between inspiring people with hope or pushing them with fear. i think that the agenda for the president needs to be to say to the israeli public that there is a fork in the road staring the people and the state of israel in the face, and it is a choice between making the terribly hard sacrifices and compromises for peace and ensuring your

long-term security and acceptance by the world, or avoiding those sacrifices, continuing to build settlements, developing essentially one state between the mediterranean and the jordan, and losing the democratic and jewish nature of israel. the question is, where is the hope? the hope is by making peace and ensure israel's future that's a shared interest with the united states and shared values as well. >> one more question before you go, jeremy. a lot was made of the tone when -- he says peace basised on illulgzs with crash eventual oy rot rocks -- and sort of lecturing the president. he was sort of a supporter of mitt romney. how do you think he feels cowed by that and will overcompensate for that in these meetings. >> i think there's been a lot of water under the bridge since those meetings that goes back a

couple years. there was an israeli election as well as an american election. so i think the dynamics between the two leaders are in a did i place than before, but the bottom line for both of them is they are leaders of their nation. they have to pursue not a personal agenda, and it's not just about how they get along personally. the issue is what's best for both of those countries, and the path ahead is clear, it's better for the u.s. and for israel to head down the path towards a two-state solution. >> putting personal politicians is a lesson we could probably learn here in the united states. thank you. >> thank you very much, alex. the house gop caucus is on board, but rebels had some reservations. is the paul ryan plan an actual budget, a political manifesto or long-term liability. we will discuss when former chief white house economist

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rand paul and a growing member of republicans are adopting a kinder, gentler tone on immigration. what exactly does reform mean to their right flank? >> i have repeated it over the course of the past six months. very simply it's this. i've told anybody in this audience, told the democrats, the media, told the republicans, i too will support amnesty if

the newly made citizens cannot vote for 25 years. >> 25 years. we will discuss the many means of the word "amnesty" ahead on "now." time for the entry premuir of the week. dr. skrasen kirk took his experience in the e.r. and created a hangover cure, using an iv administered formula. he renovated a bus into a mobile facility and dubbed it hangover heaven. for more watch your business sunday mornings at 7:30 on msnbc. hey, our salads. [ bop ] [ bop ] [ bop ] you can do that all you want, i don't like v8 juice. [ male announcer ] how about v8 v-fusion. a full serving of vegetables, a full serving of fruit. but what you taste is the fruit. so even you... could've had a v8.

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♪ ♪ geico motorcycle. see how much you could save. the president may be in israel, but his mind hasn't wandered far from the lock u.s. of dysfunction, washington, d.c. as he arrived in the holy land, he was relieved. >> good to get away from congress. >> good to get away ned tomorrow they're gearing up for a vote on the paul ryan budget. even though both sides are primed to pass the respective budgets, what happens next? >> let's have a real debate on

the budget. the lines are squarely -- or sharply drawn. our budget and your budget contrast. let the american people hear the debate and decide what they like. we're pretty confidence they like ours better. >> what do the american people like? according to a new poll. 7 in 10 american people supports spending government moan to create jobs, as "the washington post" sargent writes, americans regally tell pollsters they are deeply worried about the definite 'tis, but that changes quickly when you talk about specifics. the gallup numbers reveal a public receptive to the idea that government spending can create jobs, but house republicans seem more interested in cutting taxes than listening to what the american people actually might want, as a reminder, the paul ryan budget cut spending, and offense no new revenues, with six budgets on the table, what is the road ahead?

joining us now is doug lulls holtz-aiken, the former director of the congressional budget office. also the chief economist of the president's council of the economic advisers until president george w. bush. >> great to be here. >> and budget season no less. >> the thought in washington. >> you wrote it's like the super bowl for budget wonks and those who love them. >> just besides myself. >> i feel like we're going to have differing viewpoints here. >> shocking. >> i feel like you are not a fan of the murray budget, but whether or not you like it, she does offer both spending cuts and revenue. may not as much in spending cuts as republicans would like, but it seems like democrats are more open to compromise than republicans when it comes to the basic issue of spending and cuts. do you disagree with that? >> well, yeah, i will. i have to fill in my role.

first let me throw numbers at you. >> exactly. the key here is you take the emotion out, take the disagreement, which is real, and just recognize the cbo put out its most recent projections of what happens if we go on autopilot, the magic gridlock and we don't fix anything. over 16 trillion in debt, and we just can't do that. i don't think there's any disagreement that we're on an unsustainable track, so something has to change. the choice we now have at the moment, the problem with the senate side, yes, it raises a trillion in taxes, and i would like to know how, because how isn't as important as how much, but it doesn't cut spending. if you dig through the gimmicks, we're up, not down and that means we're not changing the trajectory. that's my concern. that's a dangerous thing for the country, and it's a disservice

to the constituencies presumably we're supposed to care about. if we don't fix this, don't fix medicare, seniors are in trouble. that's not right for them. if we don't fix medicaid. that's a bad income for low-income americans. my goods agreement with the folks like you, who are desperately wrong in this -- -- did i say that right? >> no, you meant to say, deeply correct. it's like i'm -- >> to say we don't have a problem is to say we're not going to fix things that desperately need to be for exampled. you don't have to like paul ryan, but we have to fix something. >> there's an argument as if people on the left don't understand we need to do something in terms of reform for the social safety net. the question is -- >> i'm not questioning their grasp of the need for change. i'm questioning why they won't. >> i won't agree with that. the president has put owned changed cpa, and the words that

are political kryptonite. it's on white house had t.ghous. there are economists who say right now is the the time to be coming, but for stimulative measures and deal with the spending a bit later down the road when we were actually recovered. >> the idea that paul ryan wants to cut entitlements in order to save them is the same reason we need to destroy -- we don't believe that from paul ryan, but, you know, obama has come out and said i'd cut social security, go after medicare in these various ways. there's no reason we couldn't add the levels of debt that doug is talking about. i mean, interest rates are extremely low right now. there's a lot of unused productive capacity in the economy. there is disagreement over whether you could continue to run the deficits. so, you know -- i don't want to

say there's no disagreement. people do disagree over this, and that's the problem that washington hat right now. everyone says we have to cut, we have to cut. that's the problem with the murray budget. it goes way too far toward the republicans. if unfortunate the sharp debate that schumer is talking about, debate the progressive budget, which actually adds spending and stimulus against the ryan plan. >> we haven't cut spending, have we? seriously. can we at least try that and see whether or not all of this -- but that's not cutting spending. you're still spending the money, judd forestalling where you will make the payment. >> it's still growing. >> spending in this country is still growing. it's a contingent and sane argument to make that we need to address it from that side first. we gave you the $600 billion in

new taxes, you want more, you want more spending. >> paul ryan weaves those cuts into his budget. >> so let's do policy and we with squawk. on policy you're going to have to come to the realization that the spending programs have to change. we cannot tax our way out of our promises and the growth we have on the books. we can't grow our way out of it. it is unmistakable that all of the charades have to stop and real changes have to come. let's have a debate about the changes, not about whether we have them or not. my problem with the murray budget is it's about let's keep going. my problem with the intellectual argument, which i understand, we can't cut now, i will die a happy death if i hear one of the people say we can't -- it is always an excuse to not cut. in terms of the politics, i saying this lovingly to the president, he says a lot.

he talks nonstop. put it in your budget, write it down, he has an office of management and budget, price it out, go to the floor of the house and make the case. he hasn't done the leading on the legislative front. i'm serious. >> for god's sake do it. >> do you think the paul ryan document is a serious document? >> i think it is a serious document and seriously takes on things we haven't done in a long time. it talks about balancing the budget, something i said earlier this day with you and the group, we did that for 200 years. we got away from that, it's a mistake. it does tax reform. it's got a tax reform, revenue-neutral tax reform. but you still consider it a serious document. >> i consider it an absolutely serious document, because it's very honest about what it does.

it says these are the numbers and these are the policies that prove those number. >> i would be happy if patty muralies has the same bottom-line numbers if she was transparent how she got there. there's so many gimmicks as a former cbo guy, it makes me cringe. i respect people like the progressive budget. if you want to spend more, i think you're in wrong, but be honest about it. >> paul ryan's budget doesn't really get to the detail of how he would make his cuts. >> and it's full of gimmickry. >> paul ryan's budget does more from a budget point of view than is necessary. he describes the policies that are in there. it's a fair defense on both sides that these are budget documents, and god forgive the budget community do what the ways and means committee -- we don't need that food fight. i get that. they've laid out three times in the house what they believe the budget to contain in terms of policies, and i think the senate

should do the same. >> let me ask you, michael steele, jeff sessions, the top republican on the budget committee said it may not offer a -- sessions praised the house budget chief -- that's paul ryan -- as honest and wonderful, but said senate republicans, quote, might have different views on how to move forward. this is an interesting thing. this implies there may be some liability on signing on. >> i don't think he's looking as it so much as looking at it in terms of other opportunities that may want to emanate from the senate side. realize you have chuck schumer leading off this segment for the first time talking about a democrat budget in five years. thank you very much, but all of that praise for a budget now, where were you in 2009 and 2010 when we needed that critical

mass of having comparative argument over the direction of the company? this is where, again, i think the president has dropped the ball, as sort of bringing those forces together. said that aside. i don't think at the end of the day the republicans and senates are going to be that far removed from where paul ryan is. they're laying down their own martz, the nature of the beast in washington and the senate to lay down their markers and say we see what paul ryan is doing, and we may or may not take this or that piece. what needs to happen in both chambers, because remember even though, you know, you're talking democrats and republicans, there's a big difference between senate and house. so that you have dynamic. i think all of this is good, but the keep point is you have to be honest in your budgeting, you've got to be real about it. that's where i think the real force in this conversation will go nest. >> ryan, do you think in terms of the politics as lame as they may be.

does the ryan budget end up being a liability if you're a house republican? >> absolutely. the same way it was for them in the past. you can't target medicare and have that not be a liability. throwing all the gimmicks aside, i would be curious about doug's take, it's basically two things, health care costs rising over time and revenue being as historic lows. all the rest is gimmickry. social security is good until 2030, and after that 80% without any changes at all. once you deal with those two things, you don't have any long-term deficit problem, and it's not often it's even a problem. >> kevin mccarthy -- can i correct some facts? >> kevin mccarthy was asked by david gregory, will you accept any ratio in terms of revenue to cuts? he says you're going to get

nothing. nothing on the revenue side. how is that a negotiating position? >> it's not an outcome. >> i want to be very clear. she is still the minority leader last time i checked. >> so this is not hurting republicans. the second is, every time when pushes come to shove, when boehner sat down with the president in 2011, when she sat down again, rupp put revenue on the table. there is no absence of republican compromise. there's serious absence of the president willing to do the same and taking up the man tell. the one thing -- they already tube 600 million -- >> let's just keep doing the arithmetic. it helps. the thing to worry about the long term is it's not the

historical revenues now. in all these projections, just assume the economy goes back, pray that be true and that the revenues go up to 19%. this is not a revenue problem at all. number two, even if you close the deficit. this is my major concern, you're stabilizing the debt at levels we have never lived. so you are basically saying, hey, i'm happy playing russian roulette with the economy for the next 20 years, i think that's a disservice, and i think we have to be more aggressive in debt reduction for that year. i think it's a brought indictment for anyone who pushes back as being somehow -- with their head buried in the sand and incapable of understanding that we do perhaps have to do something in terms of reforming the social safety net. whether that's means testing or increasing the capacity, being the limit -- i don't questions your commitment or compassion. i question your willingness to

run for office to do this. >> there is no way i'm running for office. in ways i can't detail on this program. we will have you back and i had bring my calculator and disprove all your hard right-wing theorems. it's gra the to have you on the program. you say pathway, rand paul says probation, at least he doesn't sea self-deportation. we'll parse it next on "now." [ male announcer ] research suggests cell health

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a new more well coming republican message is in. "new york times" reports that rand paul's speech yesterday is proof that the gop's opposition is falling away. it was full of outreach and high school spanish. >> pour favor -- [ speaking foreign language ] much better. he managed to never actually utter the phrase. instead dancing between amnesty and deportation, paul opted for probation. >> conservatives -- does not have to be amnesty or deportation, maybe there's a middle ground where we call probation, where those who came illegally have a period they have to go through. >> in politics the expression is

if you're explaining, you're losing. that lesson -- following the speech, he wasted no time muddying the waters, trying to explain how probation is different from amnesty and different from deportation and exactly like the broken immigration system we already have in place. >> i'm not offer a new pathway to citizenship. i'm simply saying you can get a work visa and get in the normal line. i'm not creating a new line, just saying you can get in the current line that exists. the only thing i'm saying is you don't have to go home. >> ultimately it may be that rand paul supports probation, as long as nobody tells the base that. indeed, keeping the big plan under wraps was the idea at cpac when both paul and marco rubio stripped any mention of immigration from their remarks. still, tower further, confusing and secretive is still an improvement on this guy. >> i think if europosed to illeap immigration, it doesn't mean that you don't have a heart, it means that you have a

heart and a brain. one i don't know what direction it's in, victoria, let tau talk about this new embrace, whether it is an embrace or what exactly is. what did you make of rand paul's statement? >> i'm confused. i am thoroughly confused. i am reading between the lines, however, i do see a support for a pathway to citizenship. fundamentally, the republican party has historically been in favor of more open immigration reform, especially the chamber of commerce folks, so i do see that there. however, rand paul is saying that he supports immigration reform, but at the same time he's saying that he's in opposition to a key component of comprehensive immigration reform, which is e-verify. if e-very fir is not concluded,

many say it can't go forward. luis gutierrez, one of the biggest advocates said we can't have it without e-very fir. he's almost sabotaging comprehensive reform by on the one hand saying let's go it, but saying i'm not going to given all enforcement mechanism. >> that is a testament to the internal struggle i think the gop is having. on the one hand don't say amnes amnesty, say the word probation, because that connotes bad things, and it rhymes with deportation. >> damned if you do, damned if you don't. on the one hand, a few weeks ago everyone on the left was screaming about this issue and how tone-deaf the republican party is. i think they're working through

the process i think rather publicly and somewhat dangerously. there has not been that connect necessarily to the base. they get criticized and slammed for that. it's confusing, it's this, it's that. this is a big step forward to have the leaders come out and move the ball on this issue. he's take it at face value. they're going to work out the language. and get it right ultimately. you heard this morning governor haley barbour talks about he once viewed e-verify skeptically, but he saw that it works. you have a voice from the executive level who has put this process into place. those types of real-life experiences have to trickle down, if you will, but people have to understand the context. this is a moving target for sure, for a lot of republicans out there. we know we have to get there. i've been there, as have a lot of other folks for a long time. they're slowly making their way

through this process. it's going to take some time. not a lot of time, but it's going to take time. >> but just at the senate level, i so leadership at the executive leave -- >> they're talking to the house members. >> but i have not seen anyone come forward in the house with a powerful message about immigration. that's where the rubber meets the road. >> you're missing what i'm just saying to you, all of this that you're seeing is talking to the house. all right? they're having this conversation in a public square. house members are hearing it, seeing it, understanding it and then that leadership will be -- they're not going to swing so far out here when you've got the center of gravity over here now on the republican party. >> jonathan chafe likened it to a hardening cartel, agreeing they'll be on the same page, but he says -- all of the major 2016 figures support comprehensive

reform. somebody, though, will surely emerge to represent the conservative base in the open field, but so fa a candidate hasn't been supplied to fill that demand. he predicts a herman cain-like figure. there are a number of groups, include the federation for american immigration reform, bob dade, who says that amnestyville will split the party. that seems like an inevitable piece. >> maybe. >> what does it do? is it strong enough at the top that they can form a bulwark against -- >> the republican party has -- michael might disagree -- but always been pretty good at controlling its grass rots. that wasn't the case in 2010, but they're making a serious effort to regain control of it. and the raven paul days are kind of gone. >> what did that mean, curt?

overwhelmingly they are not minority dominated. and therefore a vote for comprehensive reform may be against their own sort of base. >> yes, but you saw as soon as the last election was over this exterior come to jesus moment on all sorts of republicans. they're not stupid in the majority, i assume, i hope, or crazy, the republicans, and they're going to see this isn't on the wrong side of history, but on the wrong side of near-term electoral strategy. what rand paul is saying, essentially, is what the president said, you know, they have to give -- they they have to be at the back of the line, which is all the president said. >> the devil is in the details. i think republicans and democrats agree there needs to be comprehensive reform, but what do you do in terms of

granting citizenship? i think that's where the strong opposition is really bubbling over in the house and at the state level. you go to arizona, to the rural districts, people are saying begrudgingly, okay, we'll so something, but hell no, we will not give them citizenship, or if we do, we're dg -- >> and say wait for 25 years. >> the 25-years concept is what it is. >> crazy. >> it means nothing. it doesn't have any sway in the party. >> it's that tern, that fear. >> but that devil in the details exists for democrats as well. don't think this will be a free and clear opportunity for democrats. you do have democrats in parts of this country that on the labor issue who represent districts that don't have large hispanic or minority populations, so that is -- that is the new reality proposal right and left, as we go forward, which is why i find this process as it's unfolding

rather fascinating, because you're watching political theory and ideas being expressed openly, and it's not pretty, normally people come up with a very succinct way forward, but this is upon stainius, it's genuine in many respects, which is why i'm not so quick to jump on it and criticize it, because i think it's unlike what we've seen in the past, the leadership in this country, willing to step out of their comfort zone and speak on it. >> it's amazing that the ging of eight is releasing its proposal the second week of april, which is really soon. i mean, lightning speed for 11 million people. i mean 11 million plus that it's going to affect. certainly something to pay attention to. a disgraced former governor fights for his political life in a primary runoff, even before they takes on stephen colbert's sister. we'll discussion coal-bert

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yesterday mark "appalachian trail" sanford took a bit step, winning 37% of the vote in the republican primary for the south carolina seat vacated by tim scott. victoria, you are a watching of this race. >> i'm loving it. >> the woman who would be the nominee, elizabeth colbert bush, do you think mark sanford has a big comeback? >> no way. there were 16 people in this race and said we will vote with anyone except for mark sanford. nothing is possible in politics. let's give him a 20% chance of winning. if he wins the runoff, he's against colbert bush.

then only then does she have a chance of winning. kurt, before we go, in your expert opinion is being the sister of stephen colbert a liability or plus. >> for us it's definitely a plus. it's the sister of a fictional character running against a man who might as well be a fictional character. >> so brilliantly put. kurt, thank you for coming on the program. thank you for the rest of my panel. that is all for now. see you back here tomorrow at noon eastern when i'm joined by karen finney, david wolfe, and the new republic's dan byrne bomb. on a walk, walk, walk. love to walk. yeah, we found that wonderful thing. and you smiled. and threw it. and i decided i would never, ever leave it anywhere. because that wonderful, bouncy, roll-around thing... had made you play. and that...

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